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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  July 6, 2012 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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levinsohn and hulu ceo jason kilar. levinsohn took over in may after they got rid of scott thompson. they also tried to speak with aol ceo jonathan miller, now at news corp., but he declined out of his friendship with levinsohn. a judge ordered jpmorgan to explain why it will not hand over several internal e-mails to the federal regulatory commission as part of its probe into the energy market manipulation. jpmorgan released some but redacted others, citing attorney/client privilege. the judge has given jpmorgan until next friday to respond. pfizer and india's rambaxy labs are being sued. they claim they conspired for sales of liberatore. the suit says they partly signed deals with pharmacy benefit managers to force people to buy more lipitor.
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pfizer denies the claims. as joe mentioned at the top of the show, the labor department will release the june employment report at 8:30 eastern time. here are the expectations. forecasts calling for an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls. that was raised from 95,000 after the better-than-expected adp report on thursday, which set 167,000 private sector jobs were added last month. the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 8.2%. joe? there are a couple of things we'll be watching this morning in terms of stocks. shares of hard drive maker cgate will be on the list. the company says revenues and gross margins for the quarter will fall short of prior forecasts. among the primary factors, a quality issue at one of its suppliers that impacted production. seagate's forecast is also hitting shares of its biggest rival, as that usually does, western digital. let's talk on the western markets. a muted response to what "the journal" calls central banks taking action. it was not concerted, really, was it?
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>> no. >> do you think it was? it wasn't at all. >> when the story first broke, it was individual banks acting individually for their -- >> didn't help. >> well, we had a bit of a rally, haven't we, in response to this? >> not really. >> didn't we come back from 12,100 and change? >> yeah, we did. and we got a notion on some fronts that adp and challenger, may not be as bad as we thought, but retail sales weren't very good. i saw some estimates for the jobs number today that were below what you would have ratcheted things up to yesterday. >> in the wake of the adp. >> in the wake of it. and again, "the journal" says that the one missing central bank from all of this was the fed and that qe-3 is back, people are waiting, now that -- >> let's just be clear, they extended twist. >> we know that. that was a while ago, but yesterday, nothing happened. the twist was like kissing your sister. that was not like, in a northern state, kissing your sister, not -- you know. anyway. >> but in terms of yesterday, i mean, we knew what the ecb --
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>> i love the south. i just bought property in the south. i love the south. >> insulting with that one statement. >> the mason-dixon line. how many states are below the mason-dixon line? anyway, i do. i just bought property. i would like to live there, i love it. not because of that. ♪ [ banjo playing." >> but in terms of the central bank moves -- >> you've got a pretty mouth. >> me? what did i say? >> no, that's from -- >> anyway, talking about -- >> um, futures, futures looked down. >> can we point out one other thing, which is really interesting? >> if you must. >> i must. the negative interest rate by denmark, did you see that? did that not excite you? it excited me, the idea that they're going to charge banks -- >> that's not the only place. >> -- negative 0.2. >> negative swiss rates? >> swiss is not negative. >> not even the smallest term? >> not imposed by the central bank. sweden did years ago. there was talk in america in other economic circles about the idea of charging the banks money
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to keep excess reports on deposit at the central bank. >> i've heard this. >> this might impell them to land, but there are a lot of reasons -- >> difference between impelling and compelling. >> doesn't one involve some kind of weapon? >> you don't use impelling on purpose. compel is -- >> i think one involves a weapon. >> all right. futures? not going to happen before 8:30, not much, i would think, but i saw that as least as far as the s&p, we were indicated a little lower, down about three points or so on the futures. maybe we already looked. the oil board, take a quick look at what is happening in oil. we're at 85. it's been trading between 80 and 90 recently. the ten-year hasn't been the place where a lot of the action is. that's kind of stuck down there between 1.5 and 2%. the dollar was interesting yesterday, at least when viewed in terms of euros, all the way down to 1.23. and things were supposed to be much better. i saw amerimerkel made comments yesterday about no agreement for
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shared liability and everyone thought at least in the beginning there was an agreement for that. gold around 1,594. time for the "global markets report." kelly evans is standing by in london. good morning, kelly. >> good morning, joe. happy friday. we've got decliners out-pacing advancers by about 7-3 today, but as you just indicated, things are sitting a little bit quiet before we get the u.s. jobs report out. europe's 600 is down about a quarter of a percent, searching for direction. why? let's get a sense of what's happening across global markets. we've seen a positive reaction in the shanghai composite, up 1% after china cut interest rates, but it's really failed to do a lot to lift sentiment across the rest of the region, as we saw yesterday, and it didn't do much to inspire the mood in markets. the ibex 35, the one to watch across europe, down 1.35%, this as spain's bond yields are climbing higher. i'll get to that in a second.
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first, xetra dax is down about 0.3%, despite strong figures from bmw and also despite a june report showing germany's industrial output in may. that fails to reverse the drop of more than 2% in the previous month. and ftse 100 over here, just so you know, is marginally lower. we've moved off the lows, though, and that may have something to do with the pharma data we've gotten out and softening in producer prices in the uk could help consumers and producers. let's start over here, just again, the bond wall, as we show it. spain is the one to watch. 6.982%, guys, just kissing, almost kissing that 7% level again. italy we've seen now back above that 6% level this morning, 6.051%. markets clearly giving a thumbs down to the fact that the european central bank didn't do anything more aggressive in terms of outright bond purchases yesterday. france and germany here benefiting a little bit, 1.375%
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is the yield there on the german bund. and let's, of course, take a look at what's happening with the euro/dollar over here, down -- i'm sorry, 0.15%. the level of 123.71. we saw a big move down yesterday. and as that continues to move lower, you can probably expect pressure to stay on ahead of the jobs report. joe? >> thanks, kelly. >> do you realize? >> yeah? >> we have gone seven minutes in the show, we have not -- we've gone to london and back and haven't mentioned -- >> what, libor? >> libor rate-fixing scandal! >> "the journal" talks about it. >> yeah, they do. as far as scandals go, it's pretty weak, right? >> did you read the first paragraph? does that not sound like what we've been talking about? "if only it was easy to separate the manipulation by private banks to the deliberate manipulate by governments." >> exactly. >> and it's even harder to distinguish when we hear this
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anecdotal evidence from barclays and bob diamond, they thought regulators were saying help us out. >> but central bankers were explicit. >> yes, saying we want to keep it low, have a perception of not being a run, of keeping safe, so let's keep this low so -- >> you know what the scandal really needs? i mean, it's not really a scandal. we need like the use of a private jet, a scantily clad woman, combination of all those things. >> you need a bimbo. you need a soft -- >> exactly. >> why don't we just call it the libor sex scandal from now on? let's just call it that. >> maybe people will be interested in it! >> let's just call it labor. >> libor pains. that's one that was out there. >> but you need a soft porn involved. not hard, but one that she's -- >> we need you to set the rate at, right? >> i would point out, though, this is not what you're after, but the "journal" editorial does mention what the federal reserve might have known or didn't know.
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they didn't say they knew anything, but if the banking regulators in london were informed, why weren't they informed here in the united states or why wasn't the u.s. federal reserve monitoring this? >> steve, can i -- i don't know, is my mike still live? >> kelly's still here. >> we mentioned soft porn. she's got to get in! kelly. >> were there members of parliament having sex with bankers? >> do you know something? >> no, no, i just can't resist weighing in for a second when you're talking about libor. what's really interesting being over here, and as we learn more about this story, you know, keep in mind, the way that libor was calculated, which is really at the heart of all of this, banks were self-reporting because that's how it was done, but of course, they were reporting at rates different from what they were actually borrowing at. that was a london-based thing, but we're very quickly realizing that this was something going on well outside of london, so today's "financial times" -- >> no way, shocking! >> -- there's a story about how
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rbs, for example, is pulling out of tibor, the tokyo interbank offering rate. and in fact, there are about a dozen or more than a dozen different financial sectors around the world that all calculate rates -- >> what do you think is happening to shibor in shanghai? do you think shanghai is completely -- >> exactly, shibor, you're right. and this goes back to the point steve was just making, which is, of course people to some degree knew in the market that these rates, or at least libor during the financial crisis wasn't believable, but how do you move on from a rate that has basically underpinned the entire global financial system when you know it's deeply flawed? that, perhaps, goes back to regulators. why weren't they more proactive? it's a tricky question. >> yeah, it is. >> i think we're still at the beginning of this discovery process. >> i think if we use the term that the numbers were massaged -- >> massaged. >> -- a lot. just sort of throw a little innuendo in here with that. >> if we have kelly and michelle talking about it, take us off the screen. just kelly and michelle. >> these two. >> on the libor sex scandal. >> now you're taking it down.
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>> with two women. i like the way you're thinking. ♪ >> there we go. do you guys want to fight about it now? >> the cat fight from the old "seinfeld" -- >> in the mud? in the mud. >> "seinfeld," they might start additioning. >> if we keep talking, kelly's face might become as red as the back board. we can't see you anymore. >> i don't turn red. >> we just see your hair. that's all we see is your hair. steve, please, help. >> thoroughly embarrassing kelly evans. good, let's move on. >> yeah, sorry, dad, sorry, grandpa, that you had to sit through this conversation. >> you decided to come to television, kelly. it was your choice. the august halls of print. >> and your name, kelly. if charlie sheen did not date a kelly evans at some point, then i guarantee, maybe not you specifically, but just kelly evans is -- >> the name. >> would somebody call -- maybe we can get a comment from charlie sheen on libor. >> yeah. kelly evans, i mean, come on.
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anyway. >> bye, kelly. >> see you, goddess. >> counting down to the government's latest jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. in the meantime, let's get a check on the economy. joining us from charlotte is mark vitner. >> he was shaking his head. he's starting by shaking his head. >> follow that up, mark! >> senior economist at wells fargo securities. mark, what's your number for today? >> we're at 1.06. >> did you raise that after yesterday's adp and jobless claims numbers? >> yeah, our model was dead at 82,000, and we added not so much because of adp, but we do use the ism non-manufacturing. >> right. >> and the other things you have to factor in is there's five weeks between the survey period, the same as there was last june, but the two junes before that, they were four. and you go through and adjust, but you go back and test it, and they don't completely adjust for it. so there is a little bit of an upper bias for the five weeks. >> let's talk about what indicators we have going into this number. we have, you said the ism,
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services and manufacturing. the employment component of both of those were relatively good. the jobless claims number in the last week was good, but of course, that's two weeks after the survey's taken. and yet, on the other side, mark, you have indicators of real economic activity looking pretty soft. >> yeah, and even if you look within the ism and you look at some of the leading components in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, you see a clear slowing. the back log of unfilled orders fell awfully sharply in june. and typically, businesses feel better about adding the staff when they have a big, fat order book. and so, i think that the sentiment is generally trending downward and probably made businesses a little more reluctant to hire. also, if you just look at the general sentiment about europe, the survey period was when the uncertainty about europe was at its absolute worst, and that may have caused folks to hire a little bit less than they would have otherwise. >> mark, let's talk about your general view of the economy. it has been soft. it's been, call it a 1.5% to 2%
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economy. can you make a case that things are going to improve from here? >> well, i can make a case that they're not going to get a whole lot weaker. we put out a report on housing last night and i mentioned that housing can actually get stronger even as the rest of the economy gets weaker. and people look at you strange and say how on earth can that happen? and i say, well, the absolute level of residential construction now is about half of what you would typically see in a recession. and as credit begins to ease up and we have had, we're kind of plotting along with steady gains in employment, small but steady gains in employment and income. >> right. >> we're seeing that affordability is at an all-time high and demand for apartments is strong, so we have something good going on there. >> apart from housing, though, you've written a lot about uncertainty and what effect that's having on the u.s. economy. >> well, there is no escaping that. i use the analogy, i said it's sort of like there's this huge fog hanging over the economy that involves the fiscal cliff in europe, and really even the regulatory environment. we got past the health care
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decision, but we still don't know exactly what it's going to cost to insure employees next year. and so, in this kind of environment, it's sort of like having a fog hanging over the economy. you can drive in fog, you just can't drive that fast, and that's where the economy is. we're kind of stuck somewhere between 1.5% and 2% growth. >> okay, mark. thanks for joining us this morning. >> good to be with you. coming up next, how the trading pits are prepping for today's jobs report. and we want to tell you about a special event next week. warren buffett with becky in sun valley. it's that time of year again. and alan simpson and erskine bowles will join the conversation. that is thursday starting at 7:30 a.m. eastern time. keep it right here. more "squawk box" next. w york s. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs.
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welcome welcome back. u.s. equity futures at this hour are suggesting a slightly weaker open, but remember, 8:30 a.m. eastern time we get the jobs report. so those numbers are going to move -- they're probably going to be flat or not do much before we get there. once we do, they're going to move around a whole lot, so tune in for that. right now, slightly negative open suggested. all right, let's get the weekend forecast from the weather channel's alex wallace. hi, alex. i've got nothing. >> no weather at all? that's interesting. >> wow. when it's so hot out, too. >> you know, that will do it for us, alex. it's just hot i think is what he was trying to say there. >> really, really hot. >> i think he was just trying to
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say that -- >> we've got nothing. >> i've got nothing. >> this is a new thing on the global warming thing. >> it's hot. >> like, global nothing. >> you know what was interesting the other day, i went on to the "ap." this is what global warming looks like. and they showed some of the wildfires, some of the hot temperatures. >> right. >> and i went in and looked, and it said if global warming is actually happening, down the road, this is the kind of stuff that will be happening more frequently. then it went on to say none of the stuff we're seeing can in any way be tied to global warming, it's el nino and other things, and it takes years to do that and statistical analysis to do any of this. and it says, plus, asia, europe and africa aren't experiencing any of the stuff north america is experiencing. so it's definitely an el nino or el nina -- >> we have more hot air here -- >> well, hot air. but there's different times when different parts of the globe, but here we are on the east coast sweltering, and it's like, i'm telling you, al gore, he's a
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genius. he's a genius. who's good? what about alex? he's sticking with that. he's got nothing. he's got nothing but heat. it's hot. alex, you know what? we spend so much time on weather some days, the minutia, this is happening here and this is happening. if you've got nothing, say it! and he did. >> i like that. i should say that sometimes. >> i think alex probably had nothing in his ifb is what he was saying. i don't have anything. >> just skipping it. it's hot out, folks. >> how hot is it? >> it is so hot. >> so hot. >> that didn't work. >> what do you mean it didn't work? people thought it was funny. i thought it was funny. you missed the whole "it's so hot." >> so hot, bernanke traveled to new jersey to get a big gulp. >> chickens are laying hard-boiled eggs. >> the best one that i saw a dog chasing a cat and they were both walking. investors are focusing their attention this morning -- >> bernanke raised rates, right? >> it got worse and worse and worse. >> worse and worse.
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>> it got worse. where there's a debt, there's a fan in the debt ceiling -- >> try to ease the heat, you raise rates. investors are focusing on their attentions -- squirrels are pouring gatorade on their nuts. >> sorry, i missed it. >> missed that one. that went right over your head. what did i just say? >> squirrels. >> squirrels? >> are? >> their nuts? >> ira, are you there? >> joe, i'm here. >> ira practice of harris trading. no, it's yra harris of practice trading. so, this jobs number today, anything you saw yesterday that causes you to think maybe we overdid the pessimism in the jobs market? >> no. >> still bad? >> it's just, you know, it's skewed so bad. i thought the chinese actually scared the market yesterday, because that came unexpectedly and people are going, you know, we had the "barron's" cover and stories about the chinese
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slowdown. is there more to that? and i think that weighed upon the market yesterday with all the other possible good news out there. >> so, do you have a number? you don't need a number, do you? or how would you -- >> no, i don't need it. but i think under 75,000 would be weak. but the more important part of this number, of course, would be the rate, because i think the fed is looking at the rate. but manufacturing jobs i think become very critical here, especially because we've seen certain companies warn about, you know, forward earnings. and the dollar has strengthened here. don't forget, the obama mantra has been with geithner at the lead the previous two years, the weak dollar wasn't such a bad thing because it was boosting u.s. exports. so if manufacturing jobs are starting to turn down here, it won't bode well for the export sector, and that will steal some of the more robust part of the growth that we've seen. >> so, if we were to think about what happens when we emerge from the summer doldrums, which we're kind of right in the middle of, have you noticed that in terms of activity where you are and
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people that are around and volume? >> oh, there's no question. i mean, it's really been hot here in chicago. i just came in -- >> how hot has it been? >> i'm not going there. >> you're not even -- you don't even have one, huh? no, that's all right. we had a lot. >> yes, i heard some of that. i'm going to leave them as is. but it was 89 degrees at 5:00 this morning when i was coming in, which was -- and it's not a dry 89 degrees. >> all right, so, my question, when we do come out of this summer, we'll have an election in november, but we'll also be watching europe closely and then we'll be watching our own situation here, and i just wonder how it all plays out. i almost see the cliff and the election -- we're going to know a lot more in 2013 than we know right now. it's always uncertain, but it seems like right now people are even more paralyzed. >> i think that cliff -- you know, only because, you know, bernanke was the one who warned
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about it at the press conference i think back in april. so, when he threw out the fiscal cliff, if the fed is worried about it, you know, people should take this a lot more seriously. i'm not talking about people, i'm talking about politicians. we classify them as people at times is questionable. but they should be very concerned about this. and of course, europe is europe. you know, europe will be a drag, draggy in the drag, draghi and the drag will be the headlines. chinese yesterday now cutting 31 basis points, but the chinese cut was more than interesting, because they also offered a warning to real estate speculators not to get too wild here as far as speculation affects curb speculation. so, it's interesting. they cut rates, but they offer a warning at the same time that, you know, we have to do this, but mind your ps and qs. so it all becomes very interesting. >> that is interesting, because they've lived by that. they've lived by all this real estate. you know, that's helped juice
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their numbers. but i think last time they got a little bit burned and maybe they learned something last time. but if they don't do it, i don't know where it's going to come from, because there's not a whole lot of growth in exports for them right now, you would think, between us and europe. i don't know. that makes me worry about china as well. they've got to build another stadium for -- what do they -- soccer? i mean, do they have -- the stadiums are empty, steve. you know, they've got all these cities with over a million people with teams, but i'm not -- what do they play, do you know, yra? >> they have baseball and basketball. >> they like basketball. >> yeah, they love basketball. >> you don't need a big stadium for basketball. >> if you have a lot of people, you do. >> right. they have a lot of people. they can't see, though, they can't see -- all right. anyway, yra, thank you. >> okay, joe. >> i know it's hot there, as you said. >> it is. up until the weekend. we're going to cool off, though, going forward here. >> really? okay, good. see you later. >> stadiums, latin america for soccer make ours look like
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child's play. they're huge! >> remember that amazing stadium from the olympics in beijing? >> yeah, the bird's nest? >> bird's nest. >> yeah. now they struggle to get it filled and then the architect that designed it ended up on house arrest for his political outspokenness. coming up, cracking the new job market. college graduates have a new battle. we'll check out the new rules for getting hired. and american made. edible arrangements started with one store in 1999. now they have more than 1,100 across the nation. the founder and ceo tells us about the fruit of his labor. and as we head to break, a look at yesterday's "winners & losers." ♪ >> wonderful! bravo! >> loved that! >> that was great! >> i thought it was pretty good. >> well, it wasn't bad. >> there were parts of it that weren't very good. >> it could have been better. >> i didn't really like it. >> it was terrible. >> it was bad. >> it was terrible! >> boo! ♪ this is our pool. ♪ our fireworks.
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good morning, and good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with michelle caruso-cabrera and steve liesman. in the headlines this morning, we are about two hours away exactly from the release of the june jobs report. economists are looking for 100,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate is seen staying steady at 8.2%, but it usually doesn't. and other times where we've seen it seems staying steady, it's usually come down and then a big surprise, they let it go up. eu regulators are reportedly set to approve the $16.5 billion purchase of goodrich by united
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technologies, according to reuters. this is after utx agreed to sell assets and to get the deal to go through in both the u.s. and uk. and electronics-maker samsung reported a record quarterly profit of $5.9 billion. the results in this case were driven by surging sales of the company's galaxy smartphone, but anywhere you go where if you see like a new house or a new place where you rent or a new timeshare or something, there's flat-screens in all the rooms. >> yeah. >> even in like the bedrooms or whatever, and invariably -- >> bathroom. >> yeah, invariably, there's a lot of samsungz that you see out there. so, somehow, i don't know, it's another reflection of how sony, which -- didn't we used to think sony, flat-screens, tvs? >> samsung's a great story when you read. they started out as somebody who just did private-label stuff. they would make you a microwave and you could slap your own brand on it. they did chunky little stuff and
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moved up in quality dramatically until they became a big company in asia. >> the kindle fire was the number two tablet. is the galaxy up there? i think it is. >> is that a tablet? >> ignorance. i thought the galaxy was a phone. >> but there's a big samsung tablet i thought everybody was talking about. let's check on the markets this morning. futures were kind of in the flat side, which you might expect. 13 points on the fair value, 18 down, and really 0.1, 0.2, not much change here, really waiting for that big jobs number, though. but there has been some activity on oil, which was down about a buck, saw a buck and a half earlier, right? there we go. wti crude and gasoline also down, as we come up to sort of the driving season here, which we're sort of in the middle of. >> why aren't i paying $2.73 a
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gallon? >> because you have taxes and -- >> i hate taxes. >> you want to talk about that now or later? >> no. >> then there's action in the currency. the ten-year right in the 1.57% range. the yield could decline and then there's a lot of activity in the dollar. we were 1.23 on the euro. we're still there. >> that's a pretty extraordinary move. we did it in three hours. >> 1.25, yesterday? >> we started yesterday at 1.25, above it, and it was 1.23 by 10:00 in the morning. unbelievable. >> and i think there are people who have spoken about parody, right? depending what happens in the eurozone. it wouldn't be crazy. then finally, let's look at gold, which is a good barometer of what the market thinks will happen with qe, and that's down, but that's kind of been another range-bound trade, right? 15.5 to what? >> the $2,000 gold people, i don't see it this year.
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>> got close there a year ago. >> right, but -- >> but you can see that sort of range-bound stuff beginning in what, may? and it hasn't really moved too much out of that. $1,650 is the top there. >> nine out of ten people say we'll see $2,000 this year. i'm happy just saying that because i'm one in our predictions that said -- >> it wouldn't happen. >> no. >> but you remember that survey we did, the all-america survey, where like 47% of the public said gold was the best investment? >> that's a huge number. >> it's not -- it's a huge number, and -- >> went from 200 to $1,900 over the past 16 years after not doing anything. >> i think it's more meaningful. i think it shows people's lack in confidence in stocks just in general, which has been a sort of generational thing. >> so it's the real estate of now versus back when people would only buy real estate instead of stocks. >> right. and the other thing we found was that people who had incomes of $100,000 or more than $50,000 in the stock market were also thinking gold was the better investment. >> people think of it as -- the
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only people that kind of make me wonder about my long-term view of it, whether it's worthwhile now, people say it actually is currency, that it actually is the only thing that is currency. but you can't eat it, but i found out you can eat it, because you put gold flakes on things. >> gold flakes on things. chocolate. >> but if you just have that bar of gold, and we had a bar that when it was at $1,900, it was very small and worth $60,000. i looked at it and i thought, i could have three trucks, i could have 100 cows, i could have all these different things based on this, and i just didn't see it. but then people tell me, when push comes to shove, you can either use the gold to buy a gun, or if you have a gun, you can use it to steal someone's gold. so it's either guns or gold. or if you can have a gold gun, like in "goldfinger," then it's even -- >> art cashin half jokingly says you always keep enough gold on hand to bribe the border guards. and in many parts of the world, that's still actually a valid argument. >> one ounce of gold is supposed
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to be worth what a man's suit goes for. and with what i see you coming in here, it would be about $400, $350 at most with the men's warehouse -- >> that's nice that you think i spend so much money on my clothes, because i go to, you know -- >> but honestly, it used to be a suit of men's clothes -- >> really? >> used to be. that was the general rule of thumb. >> for years and years, or a certain amount of oil. now it's really way out of whack. >> you would really buy three trucks instead of a bar of gold? >> think of how much more you could do. >> what can you do with this stuff? >> but think about ten years from now what the trucks will be worth versus the bar of gold. >> that's true. maybe you could have generated profits in investment by using the trucks for something else, okay? >> true. 1.8 million new holders of bachelors degrees find themselves in a grim job market. joining us with recommendations for recent graduates and jobseekers is bill holland, founder of r. william holland consulting, focusing on career management and author of "cracking the new job market." good to see you, bill. >> good to be here. thank you for inviting me.
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>> why is the job market new? >> it's new because there's a worldwide redistribution of the workforce that's going on. and i might add, that has very little to do with the job numbers that are getting ready to come out. that job market is going to be a lousy competitive job market for the foreseeable future, regardless of how well the american economy does. and a couple of ticks up and down in the job market in the united states won't make that much different. so, what people need to do is to really start thinking about how they can be competitive in this job market, and that requires them to begin to think differently. and i'm not talking about just tweaking your resume. i'm talking about tweaking your mindset, which is much more difficult -- >> give me an example. >> -- and much more important. >> give me an example. >> for example, one of the first things people need to understand is that their resume's all of a sudden in this job market and for the first time ever perhaps in history, their resumes are not about them. their resumes need to be about what people want from them, and
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they need to establish a laser-like focus on what companies are looking to hire and then begin to describe themselves in their resumes and their experiences and their backgrounds in those terms. >> so, when they -- >> and they need to begin to do that. >> to make this actionable for a college student, every single time that student applies for a job, they need to rewrite the rece resume specifically for the job they're applying to, is it that simple? >> no, it's not that simple, and i wish it were. but for starters, and it's not just college graduates, it's anybody out there looking for a job, they need to understand what the employer is looking for and begin their description of themselves in those terms. and it sounds simple, but i've seen so many people who simply can't do that. in fact, the concept is so important that michigan state university and i have just struck an agreement along with another statewide organization
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in michigan and another organization that's topped nationally -- >> uh huh, to do what? >> to, in fact, offer a series of webinars free of charge so that we can begin to teach people -- >> great. >> -- more about -- >> that's actionable stuff. so people can look for that later. >> absolutely. >> i thought one of the most interesting suggestions you had in the book was that people have to be aware of and create their online presence so that you give employers a way to go look you up on the web that is sort of comprehensive. explain that. >> well, the truth of the matter is that when you apply for a job or you get on their radar screen, however that's going to happen, the first thing now that employers do is to check out your online image, because it is easy for them to find out if you should, in fact, be eliminated. and a lot of people, because they don't have either a professional online image or they have compromised themselves in some way, simply get
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eliminated. so, use your online image, your facebook page, your linkedin page to, in fact, make intelligent statements, say intelligent things. >> so, bill, so joe kernen could never get another job is the idea? >> i'd better keep the job i have. >> if you look at his online image. >> oh, my gosh. >> there's just no way. >> and those cheap suits that he buys, too. >> exactly. >> that wouldn't work. i wanted to talk to him about that, but -- >> you can't see the suits, bill, if i don't put pictures online. that's part of -- >> the other thing that's interesting, bill, i thought about the suggestions that you have, is that the job search is not an analog job search, it's a digital job search. it's social media. explain some of the things quickly people could be doing. >> well, you know, when you see people go on the various alumni websites and they say things like, does anybody know where i can find a job in "x"? they should rename that or relabel it mr. or ms. lazy,
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because that's probably the least effective thing you can do. you need to understand how to use social media effectively. and you use that to present yourself as someone who is industrious, willing to work, someone who has something of te intelligence to say and someone who can create value for others. >> should we ban, like, people like liesman that have an english lit major? and would it be better for him to go -- >> i would not even put that on my resume because that's not what i'm looking for. >> would it be better for him to go to a school that actually teaches him some skill of some kind? >> right, right. >> that's a great question and i appreciate it. the truth of the matter is, the demand for people who have good skills -- >> listen, steve. >> -- whether it's english, whether it's an mba or whatever have you, that demand is still there. in fact, business executives complain that they still can't find people who can make good decisions, who can -- >> finish a sentence. >> who can write english. so those skills are still very
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much important. >> thank you, bill. could you point out to joe that what i did in college 30 years ago is less important than what i've done in the ensuing 30 years? >> you know, steve, you can talk good, but -- >> yeah, well. >> what they learned you back then is, i figure i didn't need any of that stuff. >> well, you might have discovered something brilliant at m.i.t., joe, but nobody would know it because you couldn't write it down. >> i was working on it. >> i'd like to start out by saying you guys are truly nuts. >> thank you, bill. thank you. he's a smart guy! >> he is. questions about anything you see here on "squawk," e-mail us at squawk@cn squawk@cnbc.com. still ahead, "american made," 1,000 of these stores, edible arrangements. from one store in connecticut in 1999 to more than 1,100 today. the founder will tell us about starting this company and where he got the idea and what it's like to run a huge business like this. that's next on "squawk." [ male announcer ] every day, the world gets more complex.
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our our next "american made" guest has turned the fruit world upside down with his edible arrangements. and the company, here now with more, tariq farid, founder and ceo of edible arrangements. good morning, nice to see you. >> good morning. >> 1999. seems like the older you get, the years pass more quickly. doesn't seem that long ago. and now you have 1,100 stores, international at this point. >> we're in about 50 countries. it's wonderful. seems like yesterday. >> and i've used it, because i've said, you have people that you want to send things to that are out of town. you want to do it in an easy way, and you can only send so many nuts or that gross salami
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or whatever it is, you know, that they get. and if you can send a beautiful arrangement of fruit, you feel pc. it's politically correct because it's fruit. you seized on that. >> yeah. >> that was one of the things you realized in 1999, i want to do something with fresh fruit because you saw the consumption on the upswing, for health reasons. >> definitely. and you're always looking to send, regardless of. >> you're always going to do it. >> birthdays, always something. and everyone was starting to think healthy and i was in the flower business since i was 17. i started a flower shop at 17. so you always saw that people wanted something different. people wanted something unique. and they wanted the wow effect. it was really, when we saw it the first time and when we started to make the arrangements and send it out to our customers, the thing that it got was the wow effect. >> so you were running a flower shop at the time and you decide to diversify as a new product. >> you're going to send fruit that looks like flowers. >> yeah, yeah. >> you've got all the experience of the flower business, of
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running the business, number one, understanding what consumers want from the gift-giving point, and all the challenges that we had in the flower business. and then when we started edible arrangements in 1999, i mean, it really was our customers that led us to it. when we started to send it to our customers or recipients, it was difficult in the beginning because we had to kind of prove it pans out, but once people started to send it and receive all the compliments, it was just natural for us. >> the flower business is still fragmented. we have the one dude on all the time. >> 1-800-flowers. >> from japan, but mostly, it's not like that. i use a local place still. this is the only place to do this, isn't it? >> yes. i mean, we have about 1,100 stores -- >> that's the only way. you worked at mcdonald's when you were how old? >> i started at 15 through their high school program -- >> they threw you out there and said get working at 15 at mcdonald's? were you allowed to work at 15? >> as long as you had good grades and stayed out of trouble. you got a permission slip from high school saying you know
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what, you could stay busy after school. >> and you say that something you saw at mcdonald's prepared you for running this business. >> it's just a phenomenal concept of taking a 15 or 16-year-old, sticking him in a kitchen and teaching him systems, to say here's how things work. you know, this goes before this, and you know, everything is a mcplease. that's where i learned how to say please. i would go home and my mother was impressed that you say please on everything, because there they taught you whenever you want something, you have to say mcthank you or mcplease. i loved that system and going through it and you really wanted to compete. >> that's important because people say, oh, you're flipping burgers. >> right. >> but you're talking about systemization, concepts. >> i wouldn't take a job at mcdonald's. i'm too good for it, yeah. >> right, right. >> we took the job because you had to help the family and things weren't good that day, so you did whatever you had to. but it was the best job i ever had. i mean, my kids -- i don't care how big we get or how rich we get, my kids will go through that and they will work. >> they're going to work at mcdonald's?
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>> they're going to work at mcdonald's, at a fast-food to learn because they have really defined great systems and it works for them and they're very successful. >> at this point, you get more excited about growth that's left here domestically or globally? >> domestically, definitely. we have states, we hired few stores in and everything, we have a long way to go within the u.s. we have a great brand momentum, very successful franchisees and i'm sure as our franchisees start to grow from one location to two to three that's the most exciting thing for me when you see a franchise started with a single store now has five or six. >> is that coconut in. >> that's coconut. >> on what? >> i a dipped banana, dipped orange and white chocolate and coconut on it. >> i'm glad there's chocolate and coconut on the fruit, if it's just all fruit -- >> people could rip off your concept and try to replicate it?
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>> our concept is a lot deeper. there's a lot that goes into it from the time the product gets here from training and for us the most important part is consistency. >> all franchises? >> all franchises. >> how much to get one? >> $150,000 to $200,000 and they pay royalties. >> i'm going to have a chocolate covered banana. >> i bet you are. people try to glom on in terms of investors and things like that? if you need to expand rapidly, how would you do it in. >> franchising is really the mode with which we're going to do it and for us what's very important right now, you have 1,000 stores, when you get to 1,000 stores you don't have much to prove to yourself. you make sure each is successful and you don't make a mistake and try to get aggressive where you try to do something where how you've done it has worked so we want to stay with that mode of franchising and we'll start to build some corporate stores that we are the size we are and we can afford to do it.
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>> tariq, thank you. i appreciate it. >> this is fantastic. >> thank you very much. >> thank you very much, it was a pleasure. coming up the american made brands you can find in almost every home across the country. gaining market share here and around the world. "squawk box" is coming right back and we'll have a snack at the break. show you everything. check out our new mobile app. now you can use your phone to scan your car's vin or take a picture of your license. it's an easy way to start a quote. watch this -- flo, can i see your license? no. well, all right. thanks. okay, here we go. whoa! no one said "cheese." progressive mobile -- insurance has never been easier. get a free quote today. introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free.
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coming coming up, music can mean only one thing, former omb director jim nussle, it's strained, glib, a terrible song but we'll beat it to death, nussle rimes with hustle. he likes having the song associated with him, jobs, the economy, health care and more, coming up next on "squawk box." tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're hitting new highs.
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jobs, jobs, jobs. [ whistle blowing ] we are 90 minutes away from the all-important june employment report, just one of the topics to cover with our guest host, former omb director jim nussle.
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>> whole ocean of oil under our feet. no one can get at it except for me. >> the push and pull of crude, supply versus demand, stability in the mid
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he actually wasn't very republican and so -- nongets come on. >> i don't know when you aren't. i'm saying the retort is not. >> i think the private economy and jobs -- jobs, jobs, jobs. it comes from business. so it just seems -- if you can't -- if you can't stop -- >> wait a second. hold it. >> if you can't start with the idea that you need to make the environment as positive for businesses as you can, and we
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are aren't in that place with the obama administration. >> this is what i would say. companies have tons of cash. tons of money. profit as a percentage of gdp. >> if it's not being -- >> because there's no demand. >> why is there no demand? >> because consumers oar. >> i'm just playing this through. because consumers are deleveraging from the debt they had during the crisis. >> the job both you need to help consumers and this country are not going to come from government jobs. you need to pay for government jobs with the tax revenues you get from people in the private sector. >> i agree with that. >> you are telling me what we need to do is cut taxes more so that companies have more -- >> no, i'm telling you we can't be facing a fiscal cliff where all our taxes just go up everywhere in combination with the taxes from obama care. >> what if we need to face this fiscal cliff with revenues and spending cuts. and the republicans have said
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absolutely not. >> they haven't said absolutely not. >> i say absolutely not. we have a spending problem, not a revenue problem. we spend way too much. we need real solutions on spending. >> if you can get revenue growth through tax reform, the republicans will be for it. but just to add more revenue, just to increase taxes to add more revenue to a broken system, you are spending too much, doesn't make sense. >> the administration's view on this is they are saying, we have to have shared burden, right? which is that we're going to cut spend chicago is going ing whic affect a lot of middle class and poorer people. then the wealthier people have to pay their share. it doesn't seem incredibly unreasonable to me to get to a budget deal that -- >> excepti ioone thing. they want to unburden the government. they don't understand the government doesn't have anything if it doesn't come from the private sector. they believe the government is
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burdened. to unburden it is to give it more revenue to do the things it can do. >> you heard the slip where the private sector, that was like a slip. that was almost a gaffe that you think the other side would make to say the private sector doesn't have a problem. it's government. that's where we're seeing the weakness in the job growth. >> you know -- >> the rational from this -- >> totally freudian. >> i have something coming up for you. the next guest, we're going to talk about upbeat data. prompting them to up their estimates for this morning's jobs report. europe's ongoing issues remain as headwinds. steven davis is deputy dean at the university of chicago school of business. he has been tracking economic trends related to, get this, joe, policy uncertainty. he's the guy. he's got this policy uncertainty index that gauges the impact on jobs, on income. good morning, professor. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> it's great to see you.
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i guess it was chicago at the a there. >> i think it was new orleans. it was a better, it was a nice venue, i recall that. >> at the aa conference? >> aea conference. >> you said aa. >> i did not. >> you said aa. >> this is happening all morning professor, telling me what i said, rewriting everything. >> nothing wrong with that by the way. >> you haven't gone to step one yet, there's 12 you got to get through and the first is to realize there's a higher power. >> no, i thought it was you have a problem. >> first a problem and the higher power. >> you don't know what the first step is which is why you're not anywhere along the line. what is your research showing about the effect on the economy? >> along with nick bloom and scott baker at stanford we've devised a new method to measure the level of economic policy and certainty. we've applied that both to the united states and to europe and in both places, you see
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historically high levels of uncertainty, related economic policy, not just around the financial crisis, but also continuing in the last two years. >> tell us what kind of impact this higher than normal level of uncertainty may be having on jobs. how many jobs do you believe don't exist because of policy uncertainty? >> well, what we can show statistically is that high levels of policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in employment, declines in investment, and declines in output. causality is a tricky thing. >> right. >> if you were to say let's wind back the clock to the kinds of economic policy and uncertainty levels we had in 2006, we estimate that that would generate an extra 2 million to 2.5 million jobs over about a two-year time span before that fully works out. that's a big deal. it's not going to kofl all of our problems, but -- >> it's a lot of jobs. -- it will be a serious improvement.
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>> when you say uncertainty, are you saying the health care law, the fiscal cliff debate, is it the debt ceiling debate? what are we saying the uncertainty is? >> it's all of the above to some exte extent. our measures indicate the two dominant sources of policy uncertainty in the united states have to do with tax policy uncertainty, so the fiscal cliff is emblematic of that and also uncertainty about monetary policy. in europe, of course, they have got an ongoing and systemic problems around the common currency, and really institutional framework that's not well designed to deal with those problems. >> professor you're also one of the leading experts in the country on jobs in the employment market. what's broken now about the jobs market in addition to this uncertainty problem we've been talking about? >> yeah, so i think of it as death by 1,000 wounds. there are many things that are broken. the policy uncertainty is currently one headwind, but we've got other longer term problems that predate the financial crisis in the
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recession. millions of young people do not acquire the kinds of skills in high school that will allow them to become productive members of the workforce or to succeed in college. we've got increases in the number of people who were disabled over time, large increases, even though work is less physically demanding than it used to be, we've got a complicated and ineffective government job training program. we've spent hundreds of billions in the last four years on extended and expanded unemployment insurance with really no thought to how we might more productively put people back to work, so there's a large number of problems that are contributing to the current weakness, not just the near term issues that get most of the attention. >> how far back do you go in your research, because i mean, i don't know if we've ever seen this much compounding of policy uncertainty. i mean you talk about taxes, the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling, the monetary policy.
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when have you seen this historically where all of these trains are colliding in the station at one time? >> yes, well i agree with your general sense that this is an historically unprecedented time. that's actually why we began the research. currently we go back to 1985, and the last four years definitely stand out as much higher levels of policy uncertainty than over that period in both the united states and in western europe. >> there's the chart, professor, which we have up. you can see there the bottom of this cycle is equal to the top of 9/11. so this is as bad, this calmer period now is as bad as the worst we saw at 9/11. >> that debt ceiling debate, the minute that started sales dropped dramatically with chico's. it had an impact across the population. >> it's like a never-ending gulf war of uncertainty.
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>> demand is low but why and i think one of the reasons is there's a continuing de-leveraging from the financial crisis in the household sector, businesses remain cautious because they were burned during the financial crisis, but the policy uncertainty is another factor that is causing businesses and households to hold back on spending and investment, and so it's one of the factors contributing to the low aggregate demand. >> what we're hearing, what i'm hearing in all of this is europe we can't really control. the financial crisis that happened to us, we're trying to deal with it. these things should not be self-inflicted and we've got more self-inflicted uncertainty policies that, i mean, if you can't deal with, you can't control europe, we can't go back and change what happened with the financial crisis, but god, it shouldn't be self-inflicted, and even if it doesn't bring us back to where we were, anything, the 2 million jobs you were just talking about, that would be a huge difference for confidence and it feeds on itself and the
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animal spirits come back and there's tax revenues from those jobs and you see a little bit of growth. little bit of growth solves everything. all of our problems seem much small we are a little growth. >> i agree with that. i think there's two things that i'd like to see congress do immediately to lessen, not eliminate but lessen the policy uncertainty. one is, as you know, we have another debt ceiling limit coming around the end of the year, early next year. that's going to come right on the heels of the national elections, and give very little time for which ever party prevails to respond effectively. let's push that back by six months so that whether it's the republicans or the democrats who win the election, let's give them a little bit of breathing room. same point applies to the fiscal cliff. let's push the fiscal cliff back by 6 to 12 months and give the party that wins the election a chance to deal with it in a constructive way. >> that would be a good kick of the can.
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some aren't great. >> right. >> that's probably a good idea on this case. all right, thank you. >> professor, thanks for joining us, joe, another good guest from the university of chicago, i wonder if we need two. >> friedman is from the university of chicago. austan goolsbee from the other side. >> university of chicago. >> that's why i said him. >> how did austan come out like this? >> austan is less -- >> he's not as -- >> like he got thrown off the reservation with the nafta stuff in canada. next kees kruythoff will talk about everything from peanut butter to soap, his headquarters next door to cnbc in englewood cliffs. he may have some complaints about all the noise we make in the morning. we'll be right back. unt the num of buttons on your tablet.
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checking the futures right now, not a lot happening, dow jones down 5 points and consumers worldwide, there is the percentage move that when we'we are up or down five points, it's 0.04%. >> when andrew is not here we don't call it the sorkin fair value.
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>> no. >> unilever's portfolio includes brands of american favorites from skippy peanut butter to dove soap. joining us is kees kruythoff, president of unilever north america. where are you from? >> the netherlands. it's a strange name but very local, yankee is where it comes from, so two dutch names and a famous baseball team. >> there you go. we had proctor & gamble and the cfo on last time and we saw some of the news and it was very controversial what's happening there. i wonder are you seeing similar pressures in terms of i don't know whether people are trading down or because of the global slowdown, maybe they didn't want to pay the premium prices or it's hard to raise prices at this point. are you seeing the same thing? >> globally unilever is growing quite nicely.
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we have an emerging market portfolio as well so that's the first thing. the second one is for sure that consumers are looking for better value and our portfolio which we have here in the u.s. for example with suave and the affordable brands which we have is suited to every part of the economy. >> okay, then can you definitively say that unilever is being less affected by these factors because of your product mix? >> yes, we are actually less effective. whether it's lipton, the most affordable drink obviously in terms of tea or whether it is in suave, we talk about affordable beauty but also the premium end of the beauty spectrum. our portfolio is well suited. >> i'll open this up to steven and michelle. my last question had to do i know you watched the ben & jerry's interview. you own that and breyers? there's something from everybody. i'm going to eat breyer's from now on.
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>> they're also big on the whole sustainability thing. >> sustainability is fine, give them $1 million to occupy wall street. why did -- i was thinking that as a shareholder if ben & jerry's was still public i would be outraged they were delving into this because of some people that would not buy ben & jerry's. you're the owner, does that broth bother you that's in their corporate charter? >> we have something called the unilever sustainable living plan. we want to make sure every brand stands for its own mission and philosophy, so the way that ben & jerry's does that in terms of linked prosperity, lipton does that in terms of drink positive and total sustainable agriculture in terms of tea so every brand takes their own positions. >> i'm hearing it was a vermont company started by a couple of complete socialists, got that image anyway and what are you going to do.
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you got breyer's for people who don't want ben & jerry's. >> when i look at that table i see my cupboard. there's almost nothing on that table that isn't in my cupboard. do you buy them when they're already the staple or make staples out of them? >> our core competencies is our market capability so we have our focus to build them, and we've just launched to keep it in ice cream, the biggest ice cream brand in the world, the biggest eye cream market in the world, magnum. >> magnum. >> in the united states? >> we did. the most, if you really are, we talk about for pleasure seekers if you talk about a tasty ice cream fantastic. >> you cannot didn't bring samples. >> like the champagne braottle. >> we bring coupons. you know that. there you go, here is your free magnum. >> it's free, not just 10% off.
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>> so you do business all over the world. >> yeah, we do. >> health care in the united states, going to raise the cost of hiring in the united states and how do you see what you do here with health care and health insurance versus what happens in other parts of the world? >> first of all, health care is not something which we are talking too much around. what we are worried about is how we satisfy our consumers all around the world. what's important is if you look at whether there's consumers more stressed, whether it's through better nutrition, through better self-esteem, this is the way we actually want to help. >> you're punting on the question. >> he comes from holland. >> case in fact, in holland, i think you would say there is less of a 1%, 99% perception, because there is an egalitarian motive by the central planners over there for kind of an entitlement state rationale so i can see why you answered me the
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way you did with that. do you like at the way things operate here, do you think that the system could be transferred or do you think -- what we see, some people do see a slide. >> take a stand, dude. >> -- see a slide into a euro style socialism happening in the country. does it work better over there? >> i'm very, very happy to sell consumer products in america, and be responsible to grow unilever much faster, but of course, we are concerned about where the economy is going, where consumers are going. >> which system is better, kees? you've lived in both. should we try to legislate outcome or opportunity? that's the whole question. >> when you got assigned to north america you know you were thrilled, inside you were like, yeah! come on. >> what can we walk away with from this in terms of what you're saying about the u.s. consumer and their ability to keep spending and the issue of de-leveraging in the economy right now? >> i think that's the biggest
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worry obviously. the economy is always being consumer spending driven and we see that slowdown. what we see is our volumes in the total market is under pressure, which means that we need to do a better job in terms of segmenting the market, making sure that it's really about -- >> does this mean do you more at costco, make you more aggressive -- >> is he in my ear? >> he's telling me. >> you're on your own. >> i've always been on my own. >> what you see is for example the value sector like family dollar, dollar general, that part of the market growing fast so what we do is segment the market and we start to grow every part of the segment as much as we can. >> great. kees, thank you. you knew exactly what -- but you were close, you can walk back across the street. thank you. >> you got ferrari on one side and cnbc on the other. >> what a pleasure. coming up, pumped up about oil prices, dan gergen will tell
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ortho home defense max. welcome back to "squawk
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box." our next guest says policymakers need to attack energy problems from a new angle. joining success dan yergin author of "the quest." thank you for joining us. >> thank you. well, i think in key moment is the turnaround in the u.s., the last time we had a presidential campaign we were going to run out of energy. now we have a surplus of natural gas, oil production is up 25% since 2008 and i think what we see in this country is a refocusing on energy in terms of job creation and economic development. >> and tell us how we got to this position, where we have so much natural gas. >> it's basically a combination of a technological breakthrough that unfolded over a quarter century in terms of shale gas, combined with high prices a few years ago, which provided a tremendous incentive, and people started with trial and error, and it turned out that once it
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got going, the volumes got large, much larger -- >> is this the american phenomenon? >> well it's in canada. the chinese are very interested in it. they're learning about it. they have a resource -- >> but who made it happen? >> it was entrepreneurs and independents in the united states. >> to wit, steve liesman, we were talking -- >> no -- did you hear the conversation off camera? i was only pointing out that conservation in energy is low-hanging fruit. you tell me, dan, do you believe we can meet energy demand without conservation, without increasing miles per gallon? >> i see all week you've been having this whole philosophical discussion about capitalism in one form or another i've been watching it and this ties into it. i think it's a combination of the two. we're more efficient. our cars will get more energy efficient. >> that's all i was saying. >> and our oil production, the increase in oil production since 200018 equivalent to 75% of iran's total oil exports, it's a
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big number. >> dan, there's a difference between wanting to conserve and talking about the sustainability and when you hear people talk about unsustainability, they're not just talking about resources, they're talking about the sustainability of the climate, and as we -- >> the planet, life as we know it. >> dan, you've heard it. you're talking about high row carbon discoveries here. there are people that do not want to go forward with developing hydrocarbon infrastructure at this point because of carbon or carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and they will talk about the sustainability of the planet based on continuing to build out hydrocarbon facilities and these are the people we're talking about. >> go ahead, dan. >> that's why the striking thing is to see the obama administration has really embraced shale gas, it's a carbon source, low carbon but it's because of the job creation, the 600,000 jobs
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created, and because what it means for industrial competitiveness of the united states as a manufacturer. those are very immediate concerns. >> that's got to be a key transformative moment i would think in industrial history in the united states if we're at this point where you have this cheap, cheap supply of energy. how low does nat gas have to say for how long to get a big dramatic shift toward that use as a primary fuel? >>le with, i think it's around $4 would be a sort of long-term price, and it's already happening. our natural gas's market share is increasing, and we're looking at new uses of it, including something that would have been unthinkable four years ago, which is a debate about exporting some of that surplus gas. >> dan, what the gentleman from unilever was talking about, i'm talking to joe through you. >> i'll be the medium. >> is what happens as we bring what he said was 2 billion additional consumers into the world market to make them into
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middle class consumers, how we meet energy needs, how we meet natural resource needs and i think the point he was making was very simple, was that you can reply on technology. michelle, i completely agree. you also can't say it will be there when i need it at that very moment. >> i was convinced we were running out. >> steve, let me say that that's one of the real themes i wrestled with in the quest because it's not where we are today but when the world goes from 1 billion cars where we are today to 2 billion and it really matters what kind of resources you have, how efficient those cars are, how much they're used, so the challenge that we have in terms of energy is really to challenge global economic growth. >> the thing that drives me crazy is from an efficiency, from an economic point of view, conservation can, in some cases, be the cheapest way to get new sources of energy. >> yeah, i think conservation is an energy resource. >> right. >> it's part of the package. it's not an either/or but that
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phrase we're part of all of the above. >> something we embrace at the table. >> we are all on board. >> quickly we have so little time -- >> but you do what i do, and you make, you put people into positions that they have no -- >> at least you admit it. >> it's not either/or. >> it's not either/or. >> but dan, there are people that globalization and moving things across the ocean with jet fuel that causes obviously a huge carbon footprint, there are locovores who think we need to grow everything nearby, they have no idea of economics or comparisons of advantage, economies of scale. there are anti-there are people who go to the g-8 or g-20 and demonstrate against globalizati globalization per se. >> if you look out 20 years, we might see the world economy harder to believe today doubling, maybe our energy consumption will be up 35%
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because we're more efficient, but we're also using more energy. >> can we ask dan about iran, do we have time for that, no? >> no, we've got to go, or else i was going to ask about mexico. >> iran is a problem. >> we seem to be overcoming. >> and mexico is getting better we hope. thank you, dan. >> thank you. coming up, stocks to watch ahead of today's jobs reports and a look from an executive head hunter and joe and i will pigeon hold each other into unsustainable positions and 8:00 a.m., jim o'neill, goldman sachs asset management chairperson. [ male announcer ] every day, the world gets more complex.
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welcome back to "squawk box." in the headlines this morning the june jobs report just about an hour away, economists predict 100,000 new non-farm jobs and unemployment rate of 8.2%. many upped their forecast yesterday following the updated adp private sector report. bp has been excluded from bidding from abu dhabi's largest onshore fields. no reason was given for their exclusion. bausch & lomb could return
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to the public market by the end of the year, company executives feel the fortunes have improved enough to consider such a move. the "wall street journal" says they haven't prepared any ipo documents as of yet. joe? >> okay, steve. >> joe? >> lam, lam, lam. >> what did i say? >> doesn't rhyme with comb. read on high end, one of the many things you've been wrong about today. >> we agreed on everything. >> we did, except the thing you pigeonhold in the end. >> which was in response to your pigeon-holding me. >> exactly. we'll talk to the executive head hunter who recruited jeb bush to tenet health care. we have squawk market master jim o'neill, mark zandy, his clone, austan goolsbee and in between,
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diane swonk and lanhee chen. keep watching "squawk box." n yon or take a picture of your license. it's an easy way to start a quote. watch this -- flo, can i see your license? no. well, all right. thanks. okay, here we go. whoa! no one said "cheese." progressive mobile -- insurance has never been easier. get a free quote today. and so too is the summer event. now get an incredible offer on the powerful, efficient c250 sport sedan with an agility control sport-tuned suspension. but hurry before this opportunity...disappears. ♪ the mercedes-benz summer event ends july 31st.
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this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. we're 45 minutes from the all-important june jobs report.
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our next guest is an executive head hunter who has ordered -- sorry, who has advised paul volcker on jobs. russell reynolds, director of rsr partners and founder of russell renolts associates. good morning. >> good morning. >> tell us about "business lessons from an executive search pioneer." >> thank you for asking. the book is sort of a premiere book on the intricacies of the search business. we recruit corporate directors, senior executives in areas, fields from health care to financial services, technology, private equity and so forth. the book explains how executive search professionals, it explains how to write a resume. it explains questions to ask when being interviewed and it tells you what not to say, and in general, it's a good book for
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somebody coming out of business school or a new ceo who doesn't know how to deal with his hostile board. so basically, obviously i think anybody would enjoy reading it, but it's really an inside look at the search business. >> i'm guessing things have changed quite a bit from how they were say ten years ago in the wake of the new laws and regulations that came out about boards of directors. >> right, sarbanes-oxley has definitely influenced the thinking of reports and the trend is toward specialists instead of generalists, so everybody wants a director who knows the subject matter instead of just saying, being a friend from school. >> i really want to you tell us some war stories here. you meet and know everybody. you recruited jeb bush to tenet health care, jamie dimon asked you about what to do.
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jamie dimon comes to you, out of a job, you tell him what and why? >> you know, people are very human, so when that happened to jamie, how did he feel? terrible. so he ran citibank, went to the gym, had a boxing pumpbling bag for two hours because he loves to box. he came to see me drenched in sweat. i said what you been doing? he said hitting a punching bag and you know, it's good people take this very, very seriously, but head hunter's job is to understand somebody's potential as well as the reality. >> you told him to sit and wait and the phone would ring? that was your advice? >> yes. don't worry about it. >> why? why weren't you worried about him? >> he's a terrific talent, fabulous guy, great personality, born leader, really a charismatic person, and he'd
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been at the epicenter of citi for long enough so he knew an awful lot. >> when you are between jobs, the first day it's like all right and the second day -- but the third day of "leave it to beaver" and a couple of andy griffiths, you start, you might have identified with who you are with what job you held. >> right. >> i think that's good advice. you can panic in two or three days, i'm thinking of jobs between a stockbroker, i left a good firm and didn't know where the next one was and you identify who you are with what you used to do. that's not it. that doesn't seem like great advice to say relax, you're talented, the phone call will come in. you don't need to run out and say "please, i need a job!" right? i think you need that. >> what did you tell jeb bush when you brought him on the board of tenet health care? there's tradeoffs, the risk of being on the board, having been a politician, et cetera? >> well, tenet had been through
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some well publicized problems and under trevor fetter's leadership, which was outstanding, had gotten back on track and moved to dallas. jeb bush is a born leader and great guy, in florida where he personally presided over the health care agenda so he kept saying why would i want to move to dallas, i mean fly to dallas every month? i said i think you have a relative who lives there. he goes, bingo. so sometimes -- >> tenet didn't have the problems, nme had the problem, national medical had the problems, before it changed its name to tenet. i remember fetter came in and cleaned it up and turned it around. you're right, i remember that a while ago. >> thanks for coming in, good luck with the book, congr
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congratulatio congratulations. >> thank you very much. coming up, more with jim nussle and at 8:40 a.m. reaction to the numbers from lanhee chen, policy director for the romney campaign. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550
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take a look at a couple stocks to watch, navistar announcing new truck engine technology that will bring it into compliance with federal emission regulations. steve is applauding.
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>> and what you're booing? >> they're going to use earned emission credits which they need to use to continue to sell these trucks and noncompliance penalties. >> is it a noncompliance penalty or noncompliance tax? >> i don't know. >> seagate warns about revenues, and western digital accused of conspiring to keep generic versions of lipitor off the market and pfizer denies it and says it's going to defend itself. >> our guest hose is jim nussle, former director of the office of management and budget. >> you used to cover it. >> we did great interviews. jim what does mitt romney need to do now to get elected?
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>> i think he's got to connect. what everyone says, that you hear talk about his campaign is that he personally has to connect, and i think a good example is what happened over the weekend with the health care challenge that he had coming and how to deal with the supreme court decision. i think there was a lack of understanding that that was a potential option, outcome from the court, and that he was going to have to deal with it, and i think there's this tendency on the part of these folks that get to this position to surround themselves with really smart book smart people, and what they also need are some folks at the table who have got some common sense, who can go to a bar and buy a beer. i mean they understand what real people are dealing with in their daily lives and they know how to connect with folks. >> wait, we're hearing this day by day, much criticism of romney's advisersrepeatedly. >> it's not so much they're wrong or bad or smart. he's got to connect with real people right now in ohio,
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michigan, pennsylvania. i mean he's got to be -- >> would you say the bigger part of his problem is on the right or is it on the middle and on the left? >> right now i think it's just english, connecting with people on, across the table kind of situation, and he seems disconnected from that. i think in too many instances and he's got to get votes. he's got to get votes from people who are undecided and who are not going to tune in to cnbc every morning and -- >> that's their problem. >> -- and parse the policies. >> you are battling, i mean romney -- obama will have some help from the media, obviously, and you've seen some of the comments, romney once said "if i have an insurance company that's doing really lousy and it isn't doing what needs to be done for me to keep them as an insurance company, i like to fire people that don't do what they're supposed to do." how does the mainstream media take that? they take that clip and recently mainstream media had actually,
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do you remember it was about two or three weeks ago he said a couple things, one was about his wife and olympic athlete and another one i guess he was talking about some new technology and he had been talking about innovation and said look what they have now and the reporter immediately said look, he didn't know this technology existed, this is like the first bush. >> you can go around the mainstream media, you can get around it. >> you're not going to see it the other way. you got to beat obama and the media. >> too many politicians use the mainstream media as an excuse. >> i don't agree. >> i'm saying it's an excuse. >> you have to battle two. >> otherwise people like george w. bush wouldn't be elected. >> it's in spite of. home team advantage. >> there's no question but there are so many other places to get information you can go around them. you've got to be able to connect. >> do you remember the safety net issue, i'm not worried about, there are people -- he was trying to make the point he was worried about the middle
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class losing traction in this economy, saying there's a safety net for people at the very low end, so what was the headline? romney doesn't care about poor people. look at the way that this is, i'd be afraid to open my mouth and you can't control every utterance of a surrogate. romney never said it wasn't a tax. the only guy who said it wasn't a tax was one of his people. >> jim nussle and i are closer on this issue than you are, joe. >> he has a client on both sides of the aisle. >> so do i. >> i guess maybe i do too. we're 30 minutes from the employment report. jim o'neill will give us his outlook for employment, europe's hope for recovery and the u.s. economy. we'll assemble our panel of experts to get their final predictions before we get to the jobs data. if you're just tuning in, you're two hours too late. >> you know what this scandal
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needs? it's not really a scandal. >> what? >> we need abuse of a private jet, a scandal with a woman. >> you need a bimbo. >> exactly. >> why don't we just from now on call it the libor sex scandal? >> you know the economy is in a fog, and you know, you drive slower in a fog. nobody can imagine whether you're in business or any kind of situation where you would go into this kind of uncertainty without a plan. there's no plan. >> the two dominant sources of policy uncertainty in the united states have to do with tax policy uncertainty, so the fiscal cliff is emblematic of that, and also uncertainty about monetary policy. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] its lightweight construction makes it nimble... ♪ its road gripping performance
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we're we're just a half hour away from the june jobs report, a number that could move the markets and change the political landscape ahead of the november election. we have a huge line-up ahead of the data. jim o'neill of goldman sachs asset management, mark zandi of moody's analytics, diane swonk of misero financial, austan goolsbee, former economic
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adviser to president obama, and we'll get reaction to the numbers from lanhee chen, policy adviser to the romney campaign. the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwi worldwide. i'm joer can nan along with joe kernen and steve liesman. becky and andrew are off today. with us jim nussle, equity futures have been around the flat line as we await the june jobs report which comes on the first friday usually of the month. you can see not a whole lot happening on a percentage point basis and it will be at 8:30 a.m. when we get the jobs report. forecasts are calling for an increase of 100,000. it was 90 in non-farm payrolls, raised from 95,000, went up
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5,000 after the adp report yesterday which saw 176,000 private sector jobs added last month, the employment rate is seen holding steady at 8.2%. steven the past sometimes the adp is really a strong highly correlated, other times it isn't at all. >> it's been running a little hot. >> what makes it not a strong correlation? >> when it doesn't correlate. >> why does it? >> i don't know if there's any particular reason. we've never been able to get into the guts and figure out why it ends up being off and where. >> what are the chances this is reflected in a stronger than expected report today? is it 60% now, 70%? >> i forget what the numbers are but the correlation is something like 60% or 70%, so 70% of what happens with adp is what happens in the private sector so the government can be a big swing factor. >> when you look at the methodology of the two, adp should be better, based on real
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payrolls from real companies. >> so tis the government. the government does an establishment survey, adp takes data from its clients and it aggregates those up into using the series of formulas that use some government data and some other stuff and what's interesting, though, is that adp, and you're into something that you should be more into than you are because you may not know about it. adp uses sometimes a bigger sample than the government does, on the first go round, eventually the government sample ends up being equal to or a little bit bigger. what you're talking about is this issue of can the private sector do a better job at collecting data. >> that's the question i was asking in the first place. >> is the whole thing going on in terms of google data, adp data, a whole bunch of private sector stuff that is doing at least equal if not a better job than the government's doing. >> are they paying you to say that? >> makes me happy to say that because i think we need better
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data out there. the question becomes the issue of the public good, can the private sector do as good a job distributing it equally to the public and the markets as the government does. does it become an issue of selective disclosure. among other stories we're watching, yahoo! speaking of search, yahoo!'s ceo search is reportedly down to two names, between interim ceo ross levinsohn and jason kilar. level insohn took over in may. . >> he's a very tall man. >> who is, all of them? >> miller. and i think we met the hulu guy a few things because nbc was partnering. so where are the jobs going to come from? joining from us london is jim o'neill, chairman of goldman sachs asset management.
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he's a long way away to answer that question. we saw necessary earlier today that all of those gains we saw in the spanish bonds and some of the other sovereign debt, given when we solved everything once again last week that most of those gains have already been given back. it's been like this, three steps forward, two steps back, but was there hope in that agreement that we saw with merkel moving a little bit more towards shared liability? is there still hope that something was there, or have our hopes been dashed again? >> well, it looks as -- well, good morning, guys, first of all. thanks for having me on. it looks as though as the week draws on, as has been the case often with these summits that they all come together to present a united front and when they all go back to their own capitals and having to worry about their own popular supports, they interpret it a
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bit differently, and we've seen a whole number of comments suggesting some differences of nuance, and i think the thing that's got the markets really worried is the ecb didn't exactly embrace it in either turn or spirit, beyond cutting rates today. mario draghi seems to be pretty cautious about the ecb really trying to play a bigger role in it all themselves. that's kind of what's got the markets unsettled again. >> what i look at this morning is once again, spanish and italian yields moving higher, they've gotten rid of all those gains that they had made or the improvements that they had made, and yet it seems that the u.s. markets are far more interested in the u.s. data, in other words, they're shrugging off today what a year ago was an incredibly frightening thing, looking at yields of 7% in countries like spain and italy. have we moved past it? >> well, it sort of makes sense, i'm in the paths of putting pen to paper about this broader issue, that there is this mood
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particularly a gloomy mood that everything in the world correlates with each other and the euro issue is the only thing that matters, but as of 25 minutes before this number, the s&p is up nearly 9%. >> um-hum. >> the dax is up over 10. i think italy and spain are the only two major equity markets down now in europe. and within other parts of the world the next 11 as i call it, an index of the 11 biggest emerging populated countries after the brics are at 12%. india which people claim they don't like is up 13%. people are starting to trade things or invest in things a bit more based on their own merits and certainly what this number is and the ongoing trend in weekly job claims for the u.s. is way more important for the s&p than anything to do with italy and spain. >> given what happened with adp we'll bring it home even though you're over there. like so many things, do we, the pendulum swings and we ride it out in the media here, was the
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falloff in jobs over the last two or three months, did we overstate that or are we going to have a better jub today, do you think? >> i laugh to myself listening to you chatting about it before, after being around in this game for over 30 years, to get myself in a position to be live on tv 20 minutes ahead of a payroll number is ridiculous, because i know many a person that's been put out of business trying to invest too much capital on knowing what the number is going to be. >> it's cable, nobody will remember. >> huh? >> it's cable, nobody will remember. >> the thing, joe, that is important linked to what i was saying, you can trace the weaker u.s. market performance to evidence that the u.s. economy itself was starting to slow down, and i know people superficially make these links with the european market and other issues, but the u.s. market peaked at a time when there was a lot of issues around europe but it really peaked at a
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time when we started to see some doubts about the u.s. so obviously the number is really important. i think if it's surprising on the upside, it might be negated a little bit because the very latest big news we got of course was the highly disappointing ism number, at the start of the weak, and that's more of a lead indicator, of course, than the payrolls. so i think people might be quite quick to dismiss a stronger number, although obviously it would be very important both economically and politically as you guys touch on also earlier. >> wow. we go back to the, let me see, the weather was warmer in the winter, so then people got hired, so then when they were supposed to get hired a little bit later, they had already been hired but now we're hearing maybe we overstated that. this slowdown that you talked about that became apparent domestically and was not as related to europe, what caused that, do you think, a confluence of fiscal cliff problems and europe and all this other stuff?
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why did we start slowing? was it just the weather? >> you know, i'm not entirely sure which adds to all the confusion. i'm not normally shy about having a bit of confidence about these things but in this case it's not clear to me why the u.s. suddenly slowed. in addition to what you've said, i have a nagging suspicion the broader consequences of the jamie dimon and the jpmorgan news may have played some role, the sort of caution, the scrutiny about so many things, not just in the u.s., it's true over here, of course, the scrutiny about any error and any certainly financial firm but also more broadly, you know, may be making a lot of executives very cautious about steps they're going to make in terms of investments, because the consequences of getting something wrong seems to be very quick, and pretty abrupt these days, which i don't know how you deal with it because obviously people need to do the best jobs
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they can do about anything, but i think we all have to start recognizing that people do maker roars in life and none of us ever get 100% of things right. i don't know whether any of what you just said is true but that seemed to coincide when certainly the business survey started to slow. >> right, and i know what you mean because the size of jpmorgan and the size of the loss, i mean it was never material really, and we were talking about taxpayer money being at risk again, and depositor money and then i saw bank america said just in countrywide, it wasn't $2 billion, it wasn't a trade but buying countrywide was $40 billion in losses and i see what you're saying, still the financial crisis is still fresh in everyone's mind and it makes people cautious as well. i wonder what the upcoming election can engender a lot of either in terms of it's affecting the election and it's being affected by the election.
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it's like -- yes? >> you've got i think you're right, the circular thing going on about the election and of course with the other topic you raised, the fiscal cliff and whether that is or not going to be dealt with, obviously the closer we creep up to that period, the more that worries people as well, and i've got a suspicion that these issues as difficult and tangible as they are might be more important for the u.s. than anything to do with the european crisis. at the end of the day, europe is the most important market for the u.s., but certainly it's not through exports to greece or spain. it's the big places in europe that matter and they're doing okay. >> you have dual mandate and election year. qe3 seems just like -- i don't know, steve. do it. do a mandate, 8% unemployment an election year. >> i would like to see the fiscal side get their act together. >> good luck.
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jim, what are the chances you think we'll see a full blown qe3? >> well, i think the fed is probably not so sure about some of the underlying trends themselves. you can see that in the tone of the debate going on in the fed from my perspective. they don't seem to be quite in as big a rush given the mandate and the bias of ben bernanke who drives so much. it looks to me wanting to see a bit more evidence to figure out what's going on out there and of course the consequences of a qe3 itself has a lot of politics for the fed these days. it's not entirely my best guess the fed will go down that path but i'm not as confident about that either. >> any thoughts on the libor scandal? >> the libor sex scandal. >> the libor sex scandal. >> we're trying to get it juiced more so people get more interested. >> massages, people massaging. >> a woman female banker somehow
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involved? >> connections about uk regulators, any thoughts on the libor scandal? >> i want to be a bit careful whey say. this is a lot of things unfolding and more people are going to be actually legally testifying about it. >> yes, all right. >> it seems to me that there's a lot of issues about different times in the path. some look pretty black and white, but october of '08 when the world was in a real mess it is understandable that some people might not think the rates that were being quoted were reflective of any deals. people need to get less emotional about it and we can't keep looking back and trying to blame everybody for everything all the time. it's not helping business. >> right. all right, jim o'neill, thank you. appreciate all the time you gave us today. >> thank you. >> coming up more of today's top stories and we're counting down to the 8:30 a.m. eastern, when we get the june employment report. look, less than 16 minutes away. our panel of experts will give us their predictions, tell us
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welcome back to "squawk
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box." navistar announced new technology that will bring its truck engines into compliance with federal emissions regulations. the stock got an initial pop on the news but has since lost those gains. caterpillar moving lower. wells fargo removed it from its priority stock list, says macro economic lists will hurt caterpillar earnings. joe back to you. joe, back to you. >> oh you want me to do this? >> this has your name again. coming up we are counting down to the june unemployment -- or employment report, due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. we'll assemble our panel of experts including mark zandi, austan goolsbee and diane swonk and steve liesman. i'm putting you in there as an expert. >> appreciate that. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you get at some places. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 they say you have to do this, have that, invest here ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know what? ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you can't create a retirement plan based on ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 a predetermined script.
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the june jobs report just a few minutes away. we're goinging to count down with mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics, diane swonk chief economist at mes mesereau financial, and mark, we start with you you're in studio. >> i think it's going to be 125k. the adp, ui claims, ism survey
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suggest something more of that consensus. i do think weather played a role in the monthly gains between march, april and may, it was about 100k on average and if you look at construction jobs, leisure and hospitality that was affected by weather, that will be a better number. >> diane, mark is sounding or looking a little bit like charlie brown, the football's out there, he took a swipe. lucy pulled it away. diane what is your outlook here? >> i hate to say this, 125 and i did this separately from mark, we didn't talk ahead of time. i'm more optimistic for the fed and what is more important is what the revisions looked like. what is our base on employment going into the summer, what is the momentum going into the summer. i want to hear what the revisions are going to look like and also we saw that strange increase and people actually joining the labor force and pushing up the unemployment rate last month, although not an increase in the participation rate. this is getting stuff. this is stuff, but we got the
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same numbers so if he's, lucy's pulling the ball out from underneath him i guess i'll have the ball pulled out from underneath me, too. >> taking a swipe, too. austan say they're right, it's 125, 25 above the new consensus. say they're wrong and it's 150. doesn't seem a whole lot of reason for me to get excited about the job market. >> that's probably true. look, i've been the most pessimistic of our group for the last three or four months. i wish i hadn't been right. i think that overwhelming thing that we're dealing with is that the economy slowed down from where it was at the end of last year, and when the economy slows down, the job numbers are going to dry up, so that's why i continue to be fairly pessimistic, because i don't think we're growing that fast. there's a difference -- >> austan, i would have introed you that way instead of asking the other question. >> you didn't like my question? >> i would say austan has been right instead of him having to
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have said it himself. because you were. we were just trying to figure out what caused it. was it the weather that people hired a bunch of people and the warm winter? we just decided it wasn't europe, and it may have been the weather or what was it? >> no, see, i know o'neill said it wasn't europe by i think europe has had a lot to do with it. >> too early. >> liesman says no. >> i say the weakness came before europe blew up again. >> no, no. i think everyone is very nervous. >> i don't think that's true. >> we have the nightmare of the recession deeply embedded in our psyche. >> correct. >> if anything goes off script everyone pulls back. it's not just that they lay off workers, but it is i stop hiring. that's easy to do and that's why you go to stop and start. >> and that uncertainty factor. >> we've got this weird seasonal adjustment thing, which i do think has played part of it, that for several years in a row now, we've got the winter and
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the late fall looking really good, and then the spring and the summer looking really bad, and that's basically not supposed to happen. that's what the seasonal adjustment is supposed to fix and if you look at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, they're not getting revised to anything like what the seasonally adjusted are. >> are you still as pessimistic as you were, austan? lately we've thought -- >> yeah. >> you are? >> 38,000 is your prediction? holy canole! >> i think the private sector around 50, i don't think we're growing. >> is that quantitative easing if you turn out to be right? >> yeah, but look i also don't think quantitative easing has been doing very much. once the interest rate is zero percent there's not a lot the fed can do. >> austan's made the point several months you're not growing very much. gdp, growing 2%, so how can we create a lot of jobs. if we're growing 2% and productivity is growing a half a
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percent which is what it is growing and hours worked, weekly hours worked are back to where they were pre-recession, that's enough growth in total hours to generate enough jobs close to 150k, 175k a month. >> diane you were going to say something? >> let me get a comment from diane here. >> my quarterly growth rate for the second quarter is 1.5% so i'm really low and i think the feds are not itchy, they don't have an itchy trigger finger but if they see something like austan's number which is entirely possible i think they'll seriously be considering qe3 this summer. >> let's wait to see the number and see how the fed will respond to it. mark, diane and austan staying right there. coming up, we're going to bring you the data, the market reaction, analysis from our panel of experts, play the scary music because you heard austan this could be scary. take a look at the dow futures ahead of the report. there are a lot of warning lights
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all right, really important moment here, we are seconds away from the june employment report, ahead of the numbers, take a look at the futures, we expect to see a change immediately after, right now they were
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suggesting a slightly lower open, dow would open lower by 21 points but we expect that to change as soon as the number comes out in eight seconds. cnbc's jon harwood is at the labor department and he'll have the numbers any second. two, one, zero. >> just 80,000 jobs added in the month of june, michelle, 8.2% unemployment rate, unchanged, 12.7 million unemployed people, also unchanged, that makes the second quarter the weakest job adding quarter in two years, an average of 75,000 jobs added in the second quarter of this year, compared to 226,000 in the first quarter, hours worked up 0.1%, hourly wages up six cents an hour, labor force participation rate is unchanged at 63.8%, revisions for april and may, april was down 9,000, may was up 8,000, so on net just a 1,000-job change. in terms of the sectors with
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jobs added in the month of june, professional and business services up 47,000, health care up 13,000, manufacturing 11,000 but construction was flat, that's very disappointing and also disappointing for the obama administration, they've been arguing that government jobs have been dragging down more robust private sector job figures, just 4,000 jobs down in the government sector, private sector, only 84,000 up, that is less than, more than 100,000 added in the month of may so a very disappointing report for the obama administration and of course for the country and people who are unemployed, when you look at the unemployment rate it's just 4.1% for college graduates but much higher for people with less education, the unemployment rate for hispanics is 11%, african-americans 14.4, for whites slightly lower but not good news for the american economy, guys. >> absolutely. john harwood, thanks so much. mark zandi your initial thoughts here. you were thinking 125,000, you
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got 80,000, 84,000 in the private sector. >> i did want 125,000, yeah. it was disappointing but there are some silver linings. the hours worked is an increase, that 0.1% is not bad. that's very hopeful. sounded like average hourly earnings were up, strongly. >> 0.3%. >> not too bad. it's not great but the recovery is intact, moving forward, hopefully we'll get a spring later in the year. >> diane swonk? >> i agree, the dirt is always in the details and mark is right, extra hours worked, we're taking the workers we've got and giving them extra time, more important than the hourly earnings pickup and against the backdrop gas prices are falling so we have automatic stabilizers out there, as high as they still are, we are seeing lower prices at the pump and that will help us get through the summer. >> nussle, lipstick on a pig? >> recovery, seriously? yeah, and obama's in ohio right now trying to explain this to a
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bunch of diners? no baway. this doesn't compute. >> austan? >> i have a little bit of data. >> i want to know how adp -- >> giving you data, where adp is missing is in the service sector. i think yesterday the adp said there was 160,000 jobs added in the service sector. the government reporting just 71,000. where exactly is it missing? you can't tell because i don't have the industry detail from adp but i can tell you that the household survey showed that you had about 150,000, let me get the actual data here, 156,000 added in the workforce so that's a little bit more robust and has been for two months in a row. >> and steve on that service sector one, small businesses. >> yeah, okay, that's another thing, diane, we'll come back to you in a second. employed up 128,000, unemployed up 29,000. i will tell you, though, that this broader measure of labor slack what we call the u6 went
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up another tick to 14.9% from 14.8. >> austan you missed by the same amount zandi missed but why do i feel like you're right again? you were off by the same amount. >> it's like "the price is right" close enough without going over. >> i feel like you're right again. >> look, i'm feeling okay about the number. it's not a great number but it's not as much worse than expectations. it was even above my expectations. >> you're glad you were wrong. >> yes. >> let's get market reaction. treasuries moved higher, the euro tumbled lower and the dow futures worsened here. rick santelli is standing by with more details on that. did i summarize that right, rick? >> pretty much spot-on, michelle. you know, we're testing the low end of a fairly established treasury closing yield range in tens, the bottom defined right here by 157, 158 yield. we've seen it tripling down to
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the original deterioration in the equities evident down by 60 in the dow. dollar index is kind of sleeping through everything. the euro didn't weaken that much, maybe from 123.75, 123.63, that really summarizing it. in my opinion the 80,000 fits exactly the feel of the economy, and you know, i wish our esteemed panel would be a little more riled over these weak numbers, maybe they can go to ohio and jump in that crowd and explain to the president what's going on! >> they're economists, rick, they don't get riled. austan you did used to work for president obama, what do you say to our guest on the set, says he has to go to the diners and ohio and what does he say? >> well, look, i'd say two things. number one, the job creation of this first term of obama for all the struggles we've had, about 1 million greater than the first term of george bush was. >> but less people have jobs!
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who cares about bush. geez, that's the problem. austan, you guys live in the past. >> you look at manufacturing -- oh, we got rick unleashed. if you look at manufacturing which is a big deal in ohio and throughout the midwest, manufacturing is having its best couple of years in a very long time, even in the midst of a tough job market. >> isn't it harder to add jobs at 5% or 6% unemployment? if you can't do it at 8.2, i mean, the bush administration had the same jobs record as clinton in terms of overall rate, not in addition, but they both averaged about 5.4 for eight years, right, austan? >> no, you're trying to combine the second half of the bush presidency, and forget about the first half. >> for eight heerz it was 5.4 years and eight years of clinton it was 5.4. >> let's look at the broader picture, the thing that came up earlier, where you had jim
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talking earlier, what is important is the vicious cycle of running a low growth economy with a lot of uncertainty and that does seem to keep its own, have its own ability to temper things as we come around any bad news, we do see some pulling back, not a lot of hiring. it's the exact opposite of the late '90s, when you had this sort of, throw all caution to the wind, all risk, nobody cared about pricing risk whatsoever and we were hiring like crazy, and also investing in things that didn't even make sense. we're kind of the flipside of the '90s right now in terms of that visual of vicious cycle and that's important to understand because it keeps us moving sideways and muddling along instead of seeing momentum in the economy. >> i want to get back to the point about the recovery. it is recovery. we lost 8.5 million jobs, peak to trough, in the recession. you go december of '07 to the bottom, we lost 8.5 million, that was february 2010, we've created 4 million, roughly 4 million jobs since then, and that's including the 500,000 we've lost in state and local
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government. >> right, if there were no stimulus and no fed, if the fed stayed neutral and if there were no stimulus, are you saying, i mean 8.2 just sounds awful. >> it would have been measurably worse. >> 15%, 20%? >> we'd still be in double digits and the hole would have been measurably deeper, still probably be under. >> what has done has been extraordinary and feels like -- >> extraordinary is your word, no, but i think it was successful. >> and the fed has not been extraordinary, qe1, qe2. >> the total ate of the policy response is -- >> unprecedented, right? >> it's certainly unprecedented and i think it was a success. >> take a guess, what did education and health services do this month? >> generally it should create 30,000 to 40,000. >> two. 2,000. that's weird. that's just not -- >> is this number problematic for the markets in that if it had been austan's number, qe3 for sure, we get this tepid
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number, does this ensure qe3, because the market would be rallying if it did. >> it's debatable. >> the unemployment rate didn't change, you had exactly the number of people who were hired as came into the workforce so we didn't have it change by the way in the labor force. >> to steve's point, the numbers are still weird. i mean it's hard to explain no job growth in education and health services, no job growth in construction. >> mining and logging zero. >> that's possible because natural gas industry is pulling back. >> i just want to get in on the health care issue. one of the things we've seen, one of the more dramatic shifts in the economy is the slowdown in health care consumption has been discretionary spending in the u.s. i've been talking to a lot of ceos of hospitals to physicians to pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical firms, ceos there, i spend a lot of time with the ceos recently and 50% seemed to be the magical number, 50% of prescriptions aren't getting picked up, 50% of co-pays aren't being paid. people are pulling back. it's the first time we've seen
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health care spending go below other spending in the u.s. economy so health care spending becoming discretionary although we're coming back on a recovery and we're still in a deep part of the cycle. >> jim nussle, these numbers would appear to be kind of a lay-up for mitt romney in terms of gaining the white house here. >> you'd think so. you'd think so. >> why aren't they? you'd think it's difficult for the president to defend this record, and easy for romney to step forward and say you know what? things could have and should have been a lot better. >> it's general uncertainty in not only the economic marketplace but the political marketplace, in part because i think people are going in both sides, they're tired of the democrats blaming the republicans and the republicans blaming the democrats and blah, blah, and it just goes back and forth and i don't think anyone has latched on to there is a plan or there is the leadership that we need, and there is the answer to the question that we're looking for to provide the certainty we need going forward and that's what hasn't yet been
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connected to the american people, particularly those undecided voters in those key swing states. and i'm not arguing with the issue of whether it is a technical recovery, but try and explain that to a diner in ohio. that's all i'm saying. >> i disagree with that, too. i think people realize it's measurably better. look at the stock market and house prices and luke at unemployment. >> this is the reason why the politicians are having trouble. >> they do understand we were in a measurably worse place three, four years ago. >> i'll bet you that's not what the president's message is going to be today, we're really in a recovery, guys. >> that's the reality, people know deep down we were on the precipice of going all the way down and we didn't and we've come back in a significant way. we're still nervous. >> mark i think you may be overstating. >> diane that's not what i'm hearing from people. >> i think mark might be overestimating how much people understand how close to the precipice we were. we were in the middle of it, we were watching it. i didn't sleep, steve didn't sleep, we were on 24/7. i talked to people and people
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have almost forgotten how close we were to capitalism, the foundation of capitalism as capital and capital dried up, we almost lost our foundation. people don't remember and it's why it doesn't resonate although i agree they're important moves it doesn't resonate because they don't understand. >> austan you want to weigh in here? >> look, i only raised the george bush thing as a historical matter. president got reelected with a job performance that was really pretty measurably worse than what we've had even the last four years so i don't think it is an automatic guarantee that the challenger is going to take down the president. i think to have added 4 million jobs is pretty decent, those will be some pretty decent years even in a recovery so this number is somewhat disappointing but i think it is just a reflection that the gdp slowed down, we got to get the gdp growth rate going faster. >> folks will say you know what?
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they'll say thanks very much, mr. president, 4 million jobs very nice, it wasn't enough. i just think that's going to be -- >> we have an 8% unemployment rate so no matter what you say that will be the case. >> romney will say things could have been and should have been better and here's how i'll make it better and it's the third part i'm not hearing from the romney campaign. >> in has been a self-inflicted challenge. what happened in 2001 -- >> you're not going to get a lot of argument. >> the attacks in 2001 which is what this started from for bush on 9/11, which is what really was the gut punch, that no one would say that was self-inflicted. >> oh, yeah, there are people who would say that. >> in general people would not suggest that. what's happening now is self-inflicted and what will happen between now and the end of the year is self-inflicted. that's i think why there's so much frustration out there over what may seem like -- >> self-inflicted. >> sure. >> it affects both sides, both
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sides are getting blamed from the public. >> right. >> i think there is a general just absolute, you look at the public and they're very frustrated and i give a lot of speeches and doesn't matter which side of the aisle they are on now, they're all angry. >> and joe was right in that if we had some job growth, people would be -- >> everyone would be happy. >> these guys could be playing the shenanigans in washington all day long. >> diane i'm not convinced looking into the abyss but not going into the abyss explains the job growth. we got close but it was not the great depression. >> it wasn't the great depression because of the things we did. >> in '82 i was scared i wasn't going to own a home, i was petrified in 1982 and why was it so much worse this time? i don't know. >> because of the financial crisis. >> it was a financial crisis but it wasn't the abyss. we looked into the abyss.
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>> rick santelli, thank you, diane swank thank you, austan goolsbee thank you. mark zandi will stick around for the rest of the show. >> coming up, more reaction to the jobs report, we'll check in with wall street and take a look at some stocks on the move. [ music box plays ] multi-policy discount. paperless discount. paid-in-full discount. [yawning] homeowner's discount. safe driver discount. chipmunk family reunion. someone stole the nuts. squirrel jail. justice! countless discounts. now that's progressive. call oick today.
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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures now, i thought for a while they tried to go lower and
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i thought qe3 maybe would bring them back but i think maybe it wasn't bad enough. >> the number is just not bad enough. >> recap the june jobs report the economy added 80,000 new non-farm jobs during the month, short of expectations that had been ratcheted up after adp. the unemployment rate remains steady at 8.2, the revisions we saw the prior two months were awash, so as bad as the last month was, it wasn't revised. >> i'm surprised by that. i'm surprised. >> it usually comes back to the media. >> i thought if zandi was right and i'm blaming this on mark. i should take responsibility, if there was a weather component to this, you might have thought it was overstated in the prior months and something would have been revised back. >> one quick other point, it will get revised again. we had the benchmark revisions which are actually a lot large sore once we get those early next year. >> the unemployment rate will not be revised. they don't redo that. >> we're blue collar workers,
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that is one thing i know. >> oh, come on. >> we all have blue collars on. >> my grandfather was a blue collar worker, navy, deep navy. >> being an amateur anchor do we have time to talk? >> we have time to talk. >> i want to get to mark on the issue of policy right now. okay, if you're at the fed, is there something that you would be doing right now? would you think qe3 would have an effect? is this something they need to do now because the market expects it? >> i would say qe3. it's not obvious to me they're deteriorating and there's a lot of risk, europe, fiscal dlif, i would save that in case i needed it. >> we did i'm trying to remember a 70 and now an 80. what is your sense right now, mark, of where the job market is going. do you have a case that we're going to get up to 150 here or is 80 the new normal? >> aren't you still saying the average is 140? >> i think underlying job close is closer to 150.
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i think we'll get back to. >> when do we get there, next month? >> yes, next two months. >> you're saying that 150 the unemployment rate would resume declining? >> yes. at that rate you'll get -- the other thing is the emergency unemployment insurance program is expiring. and that has lifted unemployment and as that expires -- >> you actually expected that to have reduced the unemployment rate this month. >> yeah, i did -- well, not necessarily this month. i do expect by election day it will be closer to 8%. >> the last labor report before the election will be what do you think? >> 8%. >> 8%? >> yeah, very close to 8%. in some of the key swing states, it will be lower than that. if you look at ohio f you look at virginia, iowa, new hampshire, not florida, that will still be above 8%. but the other key swing states, ohio, will be lower. coming up, reaction to the jobs nauumbers and we head downo
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wall street. and becky will be live with warren buffett and avoid the fiscal cliff. we'll have alan simpson and erskine bowles on. that's thursday. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge.
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carl and melissa join us with how the jobs report is playing on wall street. >> we're going to find out, steve. obviously you guys have done a great job leading up to the number. >> a really good job, carl. >> superior job. >> i thought we did better than that. >> one of the great pastimes about the numbers, you can go back, judge those who were right, wrong. one went from 100,000 to 125,000 -- >> what is the outlook at this point? also we have the administration's reaction to the jobs number and the romney campaign's reaction to the jobs number through ser gat tom stemberg who is a founder of staples among other companies
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out there. >> who's the obama surrogate today? who is it that we have? >> i don't know. i'm not sure. they might put out a short written statement. alan kruger. >> kruger, okay. he's the main guy. >> all these people are having babies? >> freddy krueger. >> no, the surrogates. >> i get it. >> see you guys in a few minutes. coming up, final thoughts from our guest host jim nestle and mark zandi.
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if you made a list of countries from around the world... ...with the best math scores. ...the united states would be on that list. in 25th place. let's raise academic standards across the nation. let's get back to the head of the class. let's solve this.
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stock of the day is navistar, company announced a new truck engine technology that it puts into compliance with federal emissions regulations. you can see it's down a little. we were going to speak to a romney surrogate and it was canceled. and i don't know what happened. i don't know whether it was logistics or it could have been the studio, it could have been a lot of different studios. but your point is you would have someone with talking points ready to go. >> i would think it would be pretty easy to comment on this or to understand that there's probably a couple of different dareuations and what might happen this morning. it's either nothing, plus or a minus and you come on and explain that. >> both murdoch and welch have said in the last ten days, you need fighters -- >> "the wall street journal"

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